Another finger in the air, in the beginning of the month lull.
My forecasts for the March, 2011 Case-Shiller index levels were quite rushed. They were released quickly so I could publicly compare the forecasts with the CFE futures contracts about to expire. However, since the statistical models use active market data, there is no mathematical reason to wait on our forecasts until the end of the month. The April, 2011 index levels will be released on June 28th, but here are my forecasts given what the real estate markets were doing a few months ago:
| City | Confidence | Forecast | Predicted HPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis, MN | +1 | -10.52% | 94.46 |
| Phoenix, AZ | +1 | -2.85% | 97.42 |
| Las Vegas, NV | +3 | -1.56% | 95.67 |
| Atlanta, GA | +2 | -1.45% | 96.93 |
| Boston, MA | 0 | -1.32% | 145.42 |
| Los Angeles, CA | -2 | -1.22% | 165.73 |
| Seattle, WA | +3 | -0.46% | 132.35 |
| New York, NY | -1 | -0.21% | 163.15 |
| San Francisco, CA | -3 | -0.20% | 129.56 |
| Chicago, IL | +2 | -0.06% | 110.50 |
| San Diego, CA | -3 | +0.18% | 154.16 |
| Detroit, MI | 0 | +0.41% | 67.34 |
| Charlotte, NC | 0 | +0.50% | 107.50 |
| Miami, FL | 0 | +1.01% | 138.66 |
| Dallas, TX | +1 | +1.62% | 114.72 |
| Cleveland, OH | +1 | +2.12% | 98.85 |
| Denver, CO | 0 | +2.27% | 123.29 |
| Tampa, FL | +1 | +2.28% | 129.98 |
| Portland, OR | +1 | +4.71% | 138.92 |
| (The confidence score ranges from negative three for our weakest signals, up to positive three for strength. Unfortunately I am still sorting out a bug in our Washington, DC model.) | |||