The March, 2011 Case-Shiller numbers will be released this Tuesday, but the CME’s May futures contracts expire tomorrow. Some of the real estate transactions that will be summarized in Tuesday’s numbers are up to five months old, where our data is at most one week old. This is why Altos Research calls its statistics “real time,” since it is an order of magnitude more current than the benchmark in real estate data.
Below is a table of our forecasts for six of the Case-Shiller futures contracts. Check back in a few days, when I will compare with the actual March, 2011 numbers.
| Metro Area | Feb-2011 CS HPI | Forecast | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston, MA | 149.86 | -2.33% | 111bps below the future’s spot bid price |
| Chicago, IL | 113.26 | -1.28% | in the spread |
| Denver, CO | 121.26 | -3.31% | 64bps below the future’s spot bid price |
| Las Vegas, NV | 98.28 | -3.26% | 96bps below the future’s spot bid price |
| Los Angeles, CA | 168.25 | -8.64% | 763bps below the future’s spot bid price |
| San Diego, CA | 155.05 | +1.66% | 209bps above the futures spot ask price |
| (all spot prices as of 10:30am PST on 26-May-2011) | |||
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